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User ResearchvsProduct-Market Fit (PMF)

Both are essential business concepts — but they measure very different things.

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The Concept

🕵️User Research

User Research is the systematic investigation of your target audience's behaviors, needs, and motivations. It exists to invalidate your assumptions before you spend expensive engineering hours building a product nobody actually wants. True research focuses on what users *do*, not what they *say* they will do.

🧩Product-Market Fit (PMF)

Product-Market Fit is the degree to which your product satisfies a strong market demand. When you have PMF, customers are actively pulling your product from you rather than you pushing it onto them. Marc Andreessen defined it as 'being in a good market with a product that can satisfy that market.' The Sean Ellis test quantifies it: if 40%+ of users say they'd be 'very disappointed' without your product, you have PMF. Before PMF, nothing else matters — marketing spend is wasted, hiring is premature, and features are guesses. After PMF, everything gets easier: organic growth appears, retention improves, and word-of-mouth starts compounding.

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The Trap

🕵️User Research

The most dangerous trap is asking leading, hypothetical questions like 'Would you pay $10/month for this feature?' Humans are terrible at predicting their future behavior and want to please the interviewer. They will say 'yes' to your face and then never open their wallets when the product launches.

🧩Product-Market Fit (PMF)

Founders declare PMF too early based on vanity metrics — sign-ups, press coverage, 'exciting conversations' with potential customers. True PMF means users would be genuinely disappointed if your product disappeared. The second trap: assuming PMF is binary and permanent. PMF exists on a spectrum and can erode as markets shift (Blackberry had PMF until iPhone changed the market). Also: PMF for one segment doesn't mean PMF for another — you might have PMF with startups but not enterprises.

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The Action

🕵️User Research

Conduct 'Jobs-to-be-Done' interviews focused entirely on the past. Instead of asking what they want you to build, ask: 'Walk me step-by-step through the last time you tried to solve this problem. What exactly did you do? What tool did you use? How much time did it take?' Pain lives in the past, not the future.

🧩Product-Market Fit (PMF)

Run the Sean Ellis survey: ask existing users 'How would you feel if you could no longer use [product]?' with options: Very Disappointed, Somewhat Disappointed, Not Disappointed. If 40%+ say 'Very Disappointed,' you likely have PMF. If not, interview the disappointed users to learn what they love, and double down on that specific value. Track the PMF score quarterly — it should improve as you refine the product.

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Formulas

PMF Score = % of users who'd be 'very disappointed' without your product (target: ≥40%)

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