Churn RatevsNet Revenue Retention (NRR)

Churn rate measures the percentage of customers who cancel or stop paying during a given time period. It is the silent killer of SaaS businesses — even a small monthly churn compounds into massive annual losses. A 5% monthly churn sounds manageable, but compounded over 12 months, you lose 46% of your customer base. To maintain the same revenue, you need to acquire enough new customers to replace nearly HALF your base every year. This is why the best SaaS companies obsess over churn — Slack's monthly churn below 1% means they retain 89% of customers annually, creating a compounding revenue machine.

NRR measures the percentage of recurring revenue retained from existing customers over a period, including upgrades, downgrades, and churn. An NRR above 100% means your existing customers are spending MORE over time even without new sales — your revenue grows automatically. NRR = (Starting MRR + Expansion − Contraction − Churn) ÷ Starting MRR × 100. Best-in-class SaaS companies have NRR of 120%+: Snowflake (158%), Datadog (130%), Twilio (127%). NRR is the single most predictive metric for long-term SaaS success — VCs have said it's the first metric they check.

The trap is tracking only 'logo churn' (customers lost) and ignoring 'revenue churn' (revenue lost from downgrades). You could have 3% logo churn but 8% revenue churn if your largest customers are downgrading. Revenue churn is more dangerous because it hits your top line harder. The second trap: calculating churn from the wrong denominator. Always use start-of-period customers, not end-of-period or average. Using end-of-period inflates your denominator and makes churn look artificially low.

The trap is confusing NRR with gross retention. Gross retention ignores expansion — it's just (Starting MRR − Contraction − Churn) ÷ Starting MRR. A company with 90% gross retention and 30% expansion has 120% NRR, which looks great. But if expansion revenues come from price increases (not increased usage), they're masking a retention problem. If you raise prices 20% but lose 10% of customers, NRR looks positive but you've damaged trust. Sustainable NRR comes from customers CHOOSING to spend more, not being forced to.

Calculate two churn metrics monthly: Logo Churn = Customers Lost ÷ Start-of-Month Customers × 100. Revenue Churn = MRR Lost (cancellations + downgrades) ÷ Start-of-Month MRR × 100. Implement an exit survey on your cancellation page to identify the #1 reason people leave — the top reason is usually fixable. Target: under 5% monthly for SMB SaaS, under 2% for mid-market, under 1% for enterprise.

Calculate NRR monthly: (Starting MRR + Expansion − Contraction − Churn) ÷ Starting MRR × 100. If NRR < 100%, your business is a leaky bucket — fix churn and build upsell paths before spending on acquisition. If NRR is 100-110%, focus on expansion revenue (usage-based pricing, premium tiers, cross-sells). If NRR > 120%, you have an exceptional business — invest aggressively in acquisition since each customer compounds in value.