Break-Even PointvsBurn Rate

The break-even point (BEP) is when total revenue equals total costs — the moment you stop losing money and start making it. For a SaaS company: BEP in customers = Fixed Costs ÷ (ARPU − Variable Cost per Customer). If your monthly fixed costs are $50K, ARPU is $100, and variable cost per customer is $20, you need 625 customers to break even ($50K ÷ $80). Below 625 customers, every month burns cash. Above 625, every customer contributes pure margin. Most SaaS companies take 2-4 years to reach BEP, and VCs typically expect a clear path to BEP within the fundraising runway.

Burn rate is the speed at which your company spends cash reserves before generating positive cash flow. Gross burn is total monthly spending; net burn is spending minus revenue. A startup with $50K/month expenses and $20K/month revenue has a $30K net burn rate and needs $30K from savings every month to survive. VCs use burn rate to calculate runway and assess financial discipline — a startup burning $200K/month with $10K MRR will be scrutinized much harder than one burning $200K with $150K MRR.

The trap is calculating break-even on CURRENT costs while planning for FUTURE growth. If you need 625 customers to break even today, but your growth plan requires hiring 5 engineers ($60K/month) before you reach 625, your real break-even just jumped to 1,375 customers. Every hire, every tool subscription, every office lease MOVES the break-even target. Founders who show investors '6 months to break-even' and then hire aggressively find that break-even keeps receding like a mirage. Track your 'break-even velocity' — are you approaching it or is it running away from you?

The trap is tracking burn rate from your P&L instead of your bank account. Accrual accounting can show $50K net burn while your bank is actually losing $80K/month because of delayed client payments (accounts receivable), prepaid annual subscriptions expiring, and vendor invoices coming due simultaneously. Many founders have been shocked to discover their 'calculated' 12-month runway was actually 6 months when measured by actual cash in the bank.

Build a dynamic break-even model with two scenarios: (1) 'Flat cost' BEP: assuming no new hires or cost increases, how many customers/revenue until you break even? This is your floor. (2) 'Growth plan' BEP: including planned hires and investments, when do you actually break even? This is your real target. Update monthly. The gap between these two numbers is your 'growth cost.' If growth-plan BEP is more than 3x flat-cost BEP, your growth plan is burning more runway than it's building revenue.

Calculate both metrics and track them separately: Gross Burn = Total Cash Out per Month. Net Burn = Cash Out − Cash In. Then compute Runway = Cash Balance ÷ Net Burn. Set alerts: if runway drops below 6 months, initiate cost cuts or fundraising immediately. Review burn rate weekly (not monthly) — cash surprises kill more startups than bad products.